AmCham Canada Survey Finds Business Sentiment of U.S. Executives in Canada Continues to Decline

November 15, 2023 (Toronto) – The American Chamber of Commerce in Canada (AMCHAM Canada) announced today the results of the ‘AmCham-Nanos American Investment in Canada Index (ANAIC Index),’ conducted by Nanos and presented by PNC Bank. The semi-annual study gauges the business and investment climate in Canada from the perspective of executives leading American enterprises in Canada.

The ANAIC Index continues to show negative business sentiment of the Canadian economy, reaching a new low of 34 points, compared to the previous Index low of 37 points in 2022, and following a steep drop of 19 points between 2021 and 2022. The trend demonstrates a declining view of the Canadian business environment among U.S. executives conducting business in Canada. Similarly, sentiment on the current business investment environment (41 points) falls slightly below the previous low reached in April 2021 (42 points).

“The views of participating U.S. businesses on the future strength of the Canadian economy have increased slightly since the all-time low of 21 points on the index in October 2022,” notes Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research. “Yet, the majority (55%) of executives still believe the Canadian economy will be weaker in the next six months.”

When asked about their top concerns when it comes to conducting business in Canada, participating U.S. executives mention current regulations, red tape or regulatory uncertainty (73%), concerns regarding monetary policy, costs, rising interest rates or inflation (50%) and taxes (35%), among others. Participants were also asked about the significance of the upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, scheduled to begin in 2025. Most of the participating executives said the USMCA review is important (58%) or somewhat important (26%) for the success of their business in Canada. The top recommendations of the executives for the USMCA review are to reduce regulations, barriers and/or taxes and to simplify and/or coordinate regulations.

The survey also asked participating executives about the importance of Canada’s artificial intelligence (AI) policies aligning with the AI policies of other countries. All participating executives with an opinion said it is important (82%) or somewhat important (3%) for Canada to ensure its policies are in alignment with other countries. In terms of top recommendations for AI policy, participating executives suggest: establishing good regulations and making sure they keep up (37%), promoting innovation/research/ institutions (30%), and a unified approach and coordination (26%).

When asked about Canadian sales, more than two in five (45%) surveyed executives report an increase in sales in the past six months, which is consistent with the previous wave of research in 2022. However, sales expectations continue to drop since the December 2021 wave, with fewer than two in five executives saying they believe sales will increase (37%), compared to three in four in 2021 (74%).

“The AmCham Canada Nanos survey provides critical insights from some of the most notable companies that operate within the U.S. and Canada,” said David Olsen, regional president and principal officer for PNC Bank in Canada and chair of AmCham Canada. “For the last 25 years, PNC Bank has played a strategic role in helping many of these companies thrive. No matter the economic environment, we are focused on providing business leaders with the insights and advice they need to make the right financial decisions.”

Wave eight of the findings are based on an online survey of 39 executives of major U.S. businesses operating in Canada, representing a combined total global revenue of $2.2T CAN and a combined total Canadian revenue of $40.3B CAN. The survey took place between Sept. 8, and Oct. 16, 2023. The full report with data tables can be found at www.amchamcanada.ca or www.nanos.co.

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